Exclusive: Argentina’s Government Targets Debt Refinancing in New IMF Talks

Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s team told Bloomberg Línea that negotiations will begin in the coming weeks and that are expected to be a lengthy process

Gentileza: Ministerio de Economía
September 17, 2024 | 01:29 PM

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Buenos Aires — The Argentine government’s main objective in upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be to refinance its debt payments with the organization, official sources told Bloomberg Línea on Tuesday.

As they stated this Sunday in the 2025 Budget bill, Argentine authorities currently do not expect to receive fresh funding from the IMF as part of a new program, the sources added.

While discussions have not yet started, they are expected to focus specifically on easing the burden of payments, which will increase significantly in 2026 under the current program. Talks between the parties are set to begin in the coming weeks, according to the same sources, who requested anonymity.

With the Central Bank of Argentina’s (BCRA) net international reserves still in the red— projected to fall to around -US$6.8 billion by the end of October, according to consulting firm EcoGo — Economy Minister Luis Caputo is aiming to postpone the repayment deadlines with the IMF to relieve short-term debt obligations.

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However, sources did not provide information on how much flexibility the IMF would be willing to allow in postponing those payments.

According to the current program between Argentina and the IMF, the country faces the following payment schedule:

  • 2025: US$2.793 billion
  • 2026: US$4.062 billion
  • 2027: US$6.916 billion
  • 2028: US$8.164 billion
  • 2029: US$7.682 billion
  • 2030: US$7.203 billion
  • 2031: US$6.724 billion
  • 2032: US$5.242 billion
  • 2033: US$1.852 billion

Bloomberg Línea reached out to the IMF for comments on its goals for the negotiations with Argentina but received no response.

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In addition to IMF obligations, Argentina also faces payments of US$7.619 billion to private creditors in 2025, an amount that will increase from 2026 through 2028 and will only start to ease around 2032-2033.

To be sure, the Milei administration faces a challenging financial situation, with net international reserves currently hovering around US$ -4 billion. Despite an improvement from the US$ -11 billion left by the previous administration, the situation remains critical. In this context, refinancing the IMF debt, which amounts to around US$45 billion, is seen as a key to reducing current country risk levels.

Salvador Vitelli, head of research at Romano Group, said that while it’s not “urgently necessary” to refinance with the IMF at this moment — given that principal repayments will only begin in 2026 and the bulk of the payments will hit in 2027 — it would still be advisable to renegotiate some aspects of the current agreement.

“It’s crucial to try to restructure these liabilities, renegotiate with the IMF for some disbursement that allows for meeting current obligations, and achieve a more favorable payment structure,” Vitelli noted.

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Regarding the urgency of a new deal, the analyst said that it’s not “of immediate concern” as much as gaining market access is. “The IMF is not going to lend you funds to support this level of exchange rate, while intervening in financial exchange rates. But restructuring the debt would help improve the country’s risk profile,” he added.

Vitelli also emphasized that although the upcoming payments are “manageable” for now, restructuring them would help “improve market access and reduce credit risk.” According to a report his team recently prepared, “Argentina currently has 50% of its debt with international organizations.” Refinancing these liabilities, therefore, would be “beneficial for the country.”

A Budget That Sets the Course

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The Argentine government’s new approach was outlined in the 2025 Budget bill, unveiled this Sunday. In an annex to the document, the government made it clear that it does not anticipate receiving new funds from the IMF in the near term. “Payments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Paris Club will continue as scheduled, with no new inflows expected,” the text stated.

This stance surprised several analysts, who had expected the Milei administration to seek new disbursements from the multilateral organization as part of the negotiations to ease pressure on international reserves. However, the government maintained that its intention is to meet its commitments without seeking additional funds from the IMF.